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July 10, 2011

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Bill Perkins

Roger,

1. Glad to learn you don't mind people making or having money.
2. "we can't operate as a country without government spending". Well, I certainly agree the government has many necessary functions and that certainly means spending. However, that doesn't mean government spending is as productive as private spending.
3. Military security aside, I think a critical function of government is to create an environment in which the private sector can flourish in a sound manner. Take the cause of the current financial collapse--which I consider to be the government's interference with private lending practices, resulting in an unsustainable housing value bubble which burst when the underlying "AAA" collateral was found to be supported by sub-prime loans with sub-prime default rates. An international panic ensued, and the resulting real estate value spiral devastated not only those holding these CDO's, but the value of most individual's primary investment, their home. Many argue that all this was Wall Street's fault, but I find it hard to argue that the mortgage lending boom, and therefore the building boom, etc. would have collapsed if all those new loans had been good solid conventional loans with traditional due diligence. Therefore the cause of the collapse is whatever impaired lending practices to accept this trash in the first place. That was the result of almost 25 years of laws and regulations since the S&L debacle trying to give everyone the so called American Dream.
4. Investment vs. demand is a debatable "chicken or the egg" issue. I believe the entrepreneur has to foresee demand that may or may not presently exist before he will invest to create a new product or service, or expand on an existing product line. Further, and this is the critical part if the entrepreneur reports to others (banks, stockholders, etc.)and is not just risking his own money, he must have reasonable expectations of success with known variables. That includes cost of materials being predictable, business entry hurdles such as regulations or licensing being understood, taxes at federal state & local levels being stable, etc. So I don't think actual demand leads the way to investment, it's perceived present or future demand, the satisfaction of which can predictably result in a profit that has to be seen. This is the entrepreneurial risk that we all weigh in business ventures. You've been there too it sounds like.
4. The Obama administration was dealt a very difficult hand from the preceding administrations, with emphasis on Clinton and Bush2. But almost every action BHO has taken was not to fix the private sector problems but to favor his constituencies, particularly unions and greens. Either by Executive Order, by regulation, by legislation, by demagoguery, the list is endless. And I don't think I have to list them for you.
5. The net result is an unpredictable business environment. Some of the states, realizing their desperate situation if they can't retain, much less attract potential employers to their jurisdiction, are finally doing something about this at a state to state competition level. But that's largely just shuffling the deck chairs. The federal government has to do this same because we're not competitive against other countries.
6. As I stated in my prior post, I believe all wealth is created at the private level, not the public. Private business start ups and expansions must be nurtured, not beat down by the NLRB. Corporate taxes must be lowered to attract and compete with foreign capital. If BHO would follow his bi-partisan Commission findings, he could be assured of re-election.
7. By the way, exports in 2010 are back at the $1.3T 2008 level, which was the highest ever to that point, so "virtually no exports" is just incorrect. Private investments are also picking up, but at a very slow pace. New money is selectively hitting the multi-family real estate market as well. It's just at a pace that doesn't support significant job growth. Also, manufacturing output has continued to grow since the 1980's despite the migration of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs elsewhere, but with fewer jobs and more automation. Our productivity per worker is the best in the world still as a result. That's part of why corporate profits are hanging in there despite high unemployment.
8. I could also argue that money held by the wealthy is in fact being utilized because few of the truly wealthy have it buried in the back yard. That money is in banks, stock funds, hedge funds, commodities--you name it. It's not all idle by any means. More liquid and arguably more productive is the $1T to $2T held by American corporations here and abroad. There is a lot the administration could do to release that, which is the act in the play on which they need to focus. But the BHO administration is clearly not inclined to do so.

Bill Perkins

Roger,

This post was actually drafted for Pt 2 but for some reason it wouldn't let me post another comment. Not sure why if it works here.

Bill Perkins

Now that I've read part 3, I think I better understand your angst, but using your own number of $3T from your prior post as the wealth in the hands of the "wealthy" it's clear that's not enough to solve many problems in our $15T annual economy or to pay off the national debt owed to 3rd parties. IF you tax everybody 100% in the top 1% bracket, you still don't get the country to breakeven.

I don't understand how you can complain about the generosity of the country in assistance to the poor and the unemployed quoting your own numbers in Pt 3. People house and feed themselves with that assistance, but somehow it's really going to the wealthy?

Your last statement that "The money held by the vastly wealthy needs, in some manner or form, to be spread around the country like fertilizer, growing new businesses and new technologies that will bolster the economy." I agree with totally. So why doesn't the administration in fact do something that leads to that? All it knows is binding the private sector for political motivations for re-election.

Bill Perkins

"The problem is we have all the wealth in a few hands."

True, the last study I saw through 2007 indicated 85% of the net worth was in the hands of the top 20%. The top 1% held 34.6% of net worth, which is an increase of .8% since 1983. So things haven't really changed that much in that 24 year period with the top group. The next 19% gained 3% in that time frame, which of course came from the bottom 80%.

But look objectively at where their wealth lies. The top 20 on the Forbes billionaires list have the bulk of their wealth in active companies: Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Walmart, Diversified, Bloomberg, Google, Dell, Amazon, Cox Enterprises, etc. How many millions do these companies employ? Other than hedge fund guys, which are hard to figure, how many of the U.S.'s 390 billionaires (per Forbes) are not tied to ongoing active businesses. Very few. Many inherited these ownership interests, but many of those beneficiaries have expanded, grown or at least maintained their companies. I'm sure they control significant financial assets separately too, some of which is no doubt invested in other enterprises. And if you read their bio's, you'll note many sponsor significant charities and other beneficial society organizations, such as scholarship programs.

I value a country where ideas and innovation can be created, nurtured and expanded, benefiting millions of employees. The result is a standard of living, even for the bottom 25%, that many other countries envy.

Roger W. Norman

Mostly I'd like to reply to the Trillions held by corporations, which is much too large of a buffer because it is not making real money in the economy. It is tied up in investments, as you have noted. Microsoft, whilst employing many people, is only an investment for others which bolsters their particular stock, but not in the sense of money doing real work.

It's kind of like having a thousand horses roaming around a really large field of nice high green grass. Whilst they have the potential of being a thousand horsepower, that only applies if it gets something done other than eating all the grass.

The first point I really noticed that the inequality had become big enough to talk about is when George W. Bush started talking about multiples of Billions of dollars in such things as bailing out the airline industry after 9/11, and then the floodgates were opened. Everything became billions (sorry, I use Billions for emphasis when talking about dollars, but billions when talking about concepts).

The net effect was that we, the American people suddenly became enamored with the concept of spending Billions of dollars and then the spending began.

It also seems to me that the Republican party has a particular motive to spend like crazy when they are in office, which is to demand cuts in services and social programs when they are not. I don't know why anyone would say that the fundamentalist Muslims could have a 50 year plan and yet not think that the Republicans could do the same thing.

Sometimes reality steps in, such as Ronald Reagan having to raise taxes multiple times after cutting taxes to the tune of $1.2 Billion, along with killing retirement programs by the inclusion of the 401(k) retirement savings item.

Generally what I suggest is that we have to maintain a certain level of knowledge about history to understand where we've been so we know how we got here. Hopefully that would mean we wouldn't make the same mistakes, but we have and apparently will continue doing so time and time again.

Such as Billions of dollars in tax cuts for the wealthy as they supposedly will enhance hiring instead of applying that extra money towards more personal things like their own wealth. This applies to corporations, too, who just recently went to Congress and want to get a 5% tax on the $1+ Trillion dollars they have outside of the United States.

The last time we did such a deal in 2005, I believe, they spent the money in consolidation, dividends and extra bonuses, so I wonder just how altruistic their motives are.

And it couldn't hurt to have a little extra burden placed upon the business community, which has the wealth and ability to gain access to the politically powerful while most of us couldn't get the time of day from a Senator on the street.

I take it you may get the gist.

Roger

Roger W. Norman

In reference to your last post about the number of wealthy and the slight change in percentage, first I'd suggest that obviously as I had said before, that gaining that "wealthy" status is not something which many people achieve.

But when you talk about percentages, even if they don't go up, the dollar value does when the economy's value rises. It is the antithesis' of more people becoming wealthy, which again brings forward the far more prevalent situation where people are more likely to become poor than become rich, much less wealthy.

You see, there is even a "class war" between the wealthy, who don't actually acknowledge that they have such wealth, and the rich, who become American celebrities because of their example.

No one cares about the millions of people who fail every year by the unfair advantage which corporations have over the normal person making an average wage, and this is what makes my butt pucker (hey, I'm not on the NYTimes right now, this is MY space)!

Mostly I've had a lucky life and have been able to make my avocations my vocations. My interests have gone from opening and running a number of video stores in the early days, even to developing a multimillion dollar corporation with 4 locations and millions of dollars in revenues, to 8A contract work with multiple federal agencies doing some pretty important work.

I currently own a recording studio and enjoy working in music finally even as I was learning to play guitar with Roy Clark and playing in bands in the early 60s.

So I don't come at this from being someone whom hasn't actually seen good years throughout my life. But I've seen more personal devastation of individual capabilities to make a decent living, the loss of retirement programs, the handing out of taxpayer money to Chrysler, the S&Ls, then to GM and Chrysler, the pharmaceuticals on Medicare Plan B, and the financial institutions which only supported the few.

I'm sorry, but I've seen the rape of the American taxpayer for the past 30 years and I don't agree with you assessment of the advantages, nor does most of America see this as a positive.

Roger

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